New grain marketing year: What history says about pricing opportunities

Grain, oilseed and pulse prices have been supported since the start of 2026 due to the war in the Middle East and renewed concerns about Black Sea shipping tied to Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine. While last year’s global crop was large, demand was firmer than anticipated. For Canadian producers, stronger-than-expected prices helped support 2025-26 margins, but elevated input costs, trade uncertainty and market access risks continue to shape profitability expectations for the year ahead.

In this outlook, we examine how historical pricing patterns can help producers make grain marketing decisions amid market uncertainty.

Global demand has been strong

Commodity prices for the 2025-26 crop year have strengthened since our January projections, led by $45/tonne increases for both canola and soybeans. The stronger price environment has lifted the 2026-27 outlook, with prices now forecast to average above those of the crop year just ended. While abundant supplies were a major theme earlier in the year, escalating conflicts have increased input costs and supported crops tied to fuel markets. Along with stronger U.S. biofuel policy and solid global demand, this has shifted the balance sheet outlook, with global ending stocks for most major crops now expected to decline by the end of 2026-27. As a result, crop prices are projected to move closer to their five-year averages (Table 1), which still reflect elevated values seen in 2021 and 2022.

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