Margin uncertainty impacting Canadian seeding decisions

Seeding is rapidly approaching in Canada, and the question of what producers will plant this year is more uncertain than usual due to current and potential future trade disruptions. Since our 2025 crop outlook in January, tariffs and trade issues have expanded, however the focus on cereals experiencing a price resurgence relative to oilseeds has been confirmed. This outlook provides information to make informed marketing decisions based on producer seeding decisions amid uncertainties.

Crop prices volatile to start 2025

Despite all the U.S. tariff noise, canola and wheat prices fared pretty well to start 2025 relative to the beginning of the year. At one point in mid-February, canola and wheat futures were up 8% and 9%, respectively. They then fell, particularly canola prices after the Chinese tariff announcement in early March (Figure 1). However, canola futures have rebounded in the last three weeks, highlighting the ongoing volatility.

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