Fertilizer Market Outlook 2026: High Input Costs Continue to Pressure Farm Profitability

The fertilizer and nutrient market remains the single largest variable expense for many U.S. row crop producers. After the historic volatility of the 2021-2022 period, the market continues to present challenges defined by high input costs and a critical strain on farm profitability.

Fertilizer prices surged to record highs in 2022. While prices have retreated since those extreme peaks, they remain high compared to historical norms.

The single most critical factor affecting farm budgets today is the fertilizer price-to-crop ratio (affordability index). For example, with current nitrogen prices of ~$0.60/lb or more and current corn prices of $4.50/bushel, this index currently sits at 0.15, levels not seen since peak prices in 2022.

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