Canadian cattle herd expansion gains momentum while pork export headwinds intensify

Canada's livestock sectors are moving in different directions as 2026 unfolds.

Canada's cattle herd is expanding for the first time in years, but tight North American supplies continue to support historically strong prices. The hog sector remains productive, but weaker export demand and growing global competition have weighed on market prospects.

Using the latest inventory, market and trade data, this outlook examines why cattle prices remain historically strong despite herd rebuilding and why the outlook for Canadian hog producers has become more challenging.

Cattle: Expansion continues, but tight supplies continue to support prices

Statistics Canada's July 1 inventory report answered the central question facing the cattle market at the start of 2026. Our 2026 cattle outlook identified herd rebuilding as the key factor that would determine how long cattle prices remained elevated. The latest data confirm that the expansion first identified in the January 1 inventory report has gained momentum. Canada's cattle herd is now firmly in the expansion phase of the cattle cycle, but North American supplies remain tight.

Total cattle inventories increased 3.2% to 12.1 million head, the largest year-over-year increase since 2004. Beef cow numbers rose 1.9% to 3.51 million head, replacement heifers increased 5.7%, and calf inventories climbed 4.6%. Despite these gains, Canada's cattle herd remains roughly 28% below its 2005 peak (Figure 1). However, heavier carcass weights have partially offset the impact of lower cattle numbers on beef production.

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